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Subject: RE: Tsunami simulation
From: Purnomo, Herry (CIFOR) (h.purnomo@cgiar.org)
Date: Tue Jan 18 2005 - 08:04:11 CET
Dear Aurélie, Robin and others,
Thanks a lot for your suggestions! I share with my colleagues in Indonesia at Indonesian system dynamics society and Bogor Agricultural University mailing lists. Beside some immediate actions, some of us have also been thinking of having a long term research site in/close to Aceh using companion modelling approach. I do believe that Aceh people should lead their recovery process including the livelihoods, and we can input them with a relevant and high quality of research. It may help Aceh people envision various future options.
Best regards,
herry purnomo
-----Original Message-----
From: Botta Aurélie [mailto:aurelie.botta@cirad.fr]
Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 7:36 PM
To: Purnomo, Herry (CIFOR)
Cc: cormas@cirad.fr
Subject: Re: Tsunami simulation
Hi,
About research done dealing with how to exit an endangered place, or logistical aspects of rescue, I would mention the study that Manuel Winograd presented us about post-management of hurricane events in Honduras, Central America:
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Winograd M, S. Schillinger, A. Farrow, and I. Hernandez; 2000; Vulnerabilidad frente a desastres naturales en Honduras, available in <http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/Vulnerabilidad/index.htm> http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/Vulnerabilidad/index.htm
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Winograd M, (2002) Natural Disasters in Honduras, TIEMPO, 43 (2):11-14.
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Ziervogel G., C. Cabot, M. Winograd, L. Segnestam, K. Wilson, T. Downing, 2003, Vulnerability assessments and risk maps: do they help to protect the vulnerable? A case study of Honduras, Chapter 8, in Approaches to vulnerability: food systems and environments in crisis. Linda Stephen, Tom Downing, Atiq Rahman, (Editors), EARTHSCAN PUBLISHER, London, UK.
Although this study didn't follow a ComModian approach per say, it was participative enough to show that objective criteria, such as size of endangered population, didn't stand in front of subjective ones such as which "maire" has more political power to have his commune evacuated in priority.
Anyway, obviously more research in that field is needed, especially to help reduce inequality in front of natural disaster management.
Sincerely,
Aurélie
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Hi,
I am not sure if this is relevant for the discussion, but if we are talking about emergency and early warning for the safety of numerous but still remote populations such as it was the case in Aceh, the "best" option is to give early warning to every body without possible discrimination. One way to do it in the case of disasters such as tsunami is to have a few supersonic planes in stand by with loads of coloured smoke for daylight and burning particles at night that can fly over till the most remote area. You combine this with a mass information campaign through systematic awareness of children at school and radio/tv program, religious leaders, etc so that people know that when they listen to the noise of supersonic planes flying at low altitude and they see the smoke there is a tsunami coming and they have to hurry for high areas or appropriate resistant places.
So let's say after registering the earthquake and knowing the waves are coming, early warning system operators call the plane base and inforl them of the danger.
This system may not be the most sophisticated but it is probably reasonnably cheap and efficient to reach millions of people in a few minutes.
Regards
Robin
Robin Bourgeois
UNESCAP CAPSA
ISDB Programme Leader
Jalan Merdeka 145
Bogor 16111
Indonesia
62 251 323477
62 251 356813
62 251 3362 90 (fax)
62 (0)8111206615
ecopol@uncapsa.org
rhbourgeois@hotmail.com
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Original Message -----
From: Purnomo, <mailto:h.purnomo@cgiar.org> Herry (CIFOR)
To: 'system-dynamics@world.std.com' ; 'cormas@cirad.fr'
Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 11:30 AM
Subject: Tsunami simulation
Dear all,
I believe all of you already know the Earthquake and Tsunami that hit my country Indonesia and others. This catastrophe makes the Indonesian cry. The following is the simulation of Tsunami in Aceh developed by a university in Indonesia.
http://tsunami2.ppk.itb.ac.id/aceh/simulasi_tsunami_aceh.htm
I am wondering how modellers can contribute to the rehabilitation and reconstruction of Aceh and other areas in the aftermath of the Tsunami. So if you have any related publications, I will be happy to read and share with my colleagues in Indonesia in particular.
Best regards,
herry purnomo
Indonesian citizen