|
|
|
|
Subject: New publications
From: Christophe Le Page (christophe.le_page@cirad.fr)
Date: Fri Aug 08 2003 - 15:51:49 CEST
Dear all,
A master's thesis and a PhD thesis both based on a model built by using
Cormas may be downloaded from the Cormas WebSite
Sk. Morshed Anwar. Master's thesis from the Asian Institute of
Technology, Bangkok, Thailand. Land Use Change Dynamics: a Dynamic
Spatial Simulation
http://cormas.cirad.fr/pdf/Thesis_Morshed.pdf
Abstract.
It is important to study the driving forces of land use change to
understand the change process. Spatially explicit simulation models help
to test hypotheses about landscape evolution under several scenarios.
This research presents a dynamic simulation model of land use change of
Nong Chok area, Central Thailand. Simulation of land use change has been
performed integrating remote sensing, Geographical Information Systems
(GIS) and dynamic simulation toolkit. The model has been developed based
on selected biophysical and human driving forces. It is a cellular
automata model that presents vicinity based transitional functions. The
study was conceived for the simulation of land use change dynamics, in
particular from paddy fields to fishponds. The model was run for 19
years from 1981-2000. Data describing present and historic land use
pattern were derived from aerial photographs. Transition functions were
developed following entropy calculation by using ID3 algorithm of the
land use change datasets. The model uses as its input a land use map
(1981), spatial and human variables: distance to canal, age, ownership,
religion, education, and family size of the farmers before the
simulation starts. The result of the simulation showed considerable
performance of the model to diffuse fishponds except few mismatches. To
validate this spatial simulation model of land use change dynamics, the
simulated maps were compared with the reference land use map (2000)
using a set of landscape indices: number of fishpond cells, patch
density, mean patch size, edge density, fractal dimension, and mean
nearest neighborhood. Further investigation by integrating other
variables might allow the model to simulate land use change with greater
accuracy.
Herry Purnomo. PhD thesis from Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia.
A Modeling Approach to Collaborative Forest Management
http://cormas.cirad.fr/pdf/purnomoPhD.pdf
Abstract:
A successful sustainable development strategy requires that forest
management be carried out in a participatory way. This includes the
involvement of local communities. The importance of communities'
participation has been written into Indonesian Law No. 41 on Forestry
(1999). However, how this law can be implemented in areas already
allocated to a concession holder is still unclear. The state-owned
company, Inhutani II Sub Unit Malinau, has managed a forest area in
Malinau District, East Kalimantan for over 10 years. Forestdependent
communities located in the managed area were Long Seturan, Long Loreh
and Langap villages. The company managed the area based on plans
approved by the local and central] governments. They established
permanent sample plots for measuring the stand growth and yield data in
their area, and were asked to improve the well-being of local
communities. However, the schemes did not give the company sufficient
space to manage the area creatively, or provide a systematic way to
involve the communities in the management of the forest.
This research was aimed at seeking scenarios of sustainable forest
management (SFM) that addressed the above limitations. To reach this
aim, two research hypotheses were proposed:
1. Local forest stakeholders can define their own SFM Criteria and
Indicators (C&I) for specific sites where they live, or that concern them;
2. Collaborative management of forests by all relevant stakeholders will
achieve better forest management outcomes.
An artificial society of primary forest actors was built using a
multi-agent system approach, It has been used for developing scenarios
to increase the sustainability of forest management. Indicators of
forest cover and standing stock, communities' incomes, company revenue
and taxes paid to local and central governments measured the
sustainability. The research results showed that local communities that
lived in the area of Inhutani II were able to define C&I of SFM. The
local C&I are not different from the generic or scientific C&I of SFM.
However, these C&I are formulated with different structures and
argumentations. The developed knowledge-based system found a way to
harmonize this knowledge. Collaboration between concessionaires and the
communities appeared to be the most suitable alternative for SFM -
particularly for improving communities' incomes without decreasing the
quality of the forest. An appropriate decentralization policy is a
condition for implementing collaborative forest management.
A pdf version of a paper published in Small-scale Forest Economics,
Management and Policy is available on request to the author
(h.purnomo@cgiar.org)
Best regards,
clp
-- Christophe Le Page CIRAD - TERA TA 60/15 - 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5 - France Tél: +33 467 593 832 Fax: +33 467 593 827 http://cormas.cirad.fr