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Subject: LORAX - A model of South African Development
From: Louise Erasmus (lerasmus@zoology.up.ac.za)
Date: lun nov 26 2001 - 08:51:44 CET
Dear all
After much sweat, our first version of the model of national South African
development (LORAX 1.0) has seen the light. Website for download:
http://www.up.ac.za/academic/centre-environmental-studies/Lorax.html
LORAX 1.0 was constructed to investigate the prospects for development in
South Africa. It is an integrative model of ~150 variables. We used
historical trends in the relationships between these variables to
extrapolate qualitative scenarios of South African development for the next
100 years. The platform allows for the testing of underlying model
assumptions (such as the effects of HIV/Aids, gold price, immigration rates,
etc.), as well as plausible policy interventions.
Preliminary findings of LORAX 1.0 will be published in the South African
Journal of Science. If you do not have access to this journal, you are
welcome to send requests for reprints.
Please forward this message to other interested parties. We are looking
forward to hearing your comments and suggestions for future improvements and
elaborations of LORAX 1.0 as well as the website.
Kind regards
Louise Erasmus & Prof. Albert van Jaarsveld
Centre for Environmental Studies / Department of Zoology and Entomology
Geography Building 2-1
University of Pretoria
Pretoria
0002
Tel. +27-12-420 4048
Fax. +27-12-420 3210
http://www.up.ac.za/academic/centre-environmental-studies/
"Criticism comes easier than craftsmanship."
-Zeuxis